geopoliticsGlobalopen

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Volume: KSh 104.0k Vol.
Reveals in: 4 months
Source: CNN, BBC and Aljazeera

Resolution

Market rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

Source: CNN, BBC and Aljazeera

Verification: https://www.bbc.com/

Background

Context

Market outcomes

Live

Yes
40¢ per share · ≈ KSh 52 · KSh 41.6k Vol.
40%
Buy 40¢Sell 40¢
No
60¢ per share · ≈ KSh 78 · KSh 62.4k Vol.
60%
Buy 60¢Sell 60¢

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