geopoliticsopen

Will Russia detonate a nuclear device in 2026?

Volume: KSh 85.8k Vol.
Reveals in: 3 months
Source: CNN, BBC and Aljazeera

Probability history

Yes50%No50%

Resolution

Market rules

The market will resolve yes Yif a nuclear detonation is confirmed (test or otherwise) by seismic data/international monitors. No, if such does not occur before 31 December 2026. This should be verifiable by multiple global media sources like CNN, BBC and Aljazeera

Source: CNN, BBC and Aljazeera

Verification: https://www.bbc.com/

Background

Context

Buy and sell Yes or No shares on this market.

Share: Your stake on one outcome being right. It pays out in full if it is, and nothing if it is not.
Price: What one share costs, and the odds the market is giving it. It moves as people buy and sell.
Payout: The fixed amount a winning share returns. The cheaper the share, the bigger the multiple on your stake.